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Azerbaijan’s Incremental Increase On The Nagorno Karabagh Frontline

April 12, 2016

By Masis Ingilizian

Translations: Русский

karabagh 2

The Red line illustrates the distance between the demarcation line and the newly seized post of Lele Tepe, a distance of approximately 1 km.

On April 2nd, reports began to flood in from the Northern villages of Karabagh regarding a major Azerbaijani offensive on their territory. By April 3rd, Azerbaijan’s President Aliyev openly admitted that he had felt compelled to act in response to the lack of progress in peace talks facilitated by the Minsk Group, with the international media quoting him as saying: “If Armenian soldiers don’t want to die, they should leave Azerbaijani territory.”[i] Azerbaijan utilised blitzkrieg tactics to capture villages along the Nagorno Karabagh frontline. The fighting came to a halt on April 5th. The 4-day battle was the culmination of an increasing escalation of clashes over the past 22 years of the “no war – no peace” stalemate, following the 1988-1994 war that left over 30,000 dead.

The Armenians have inhabited the Karabagh plains since ancient times. Fighting began with the arrival of nomadic Turkic tribes on the plains of Karabagh in the 1750s. While the originating causes of the conflict remain obscure, intermittent warfare continued into the 20th century. Azerbaijani historians now argue that the land belongs to Azerbaijan, based on the claim that they are descendants of Christian Caucasian Albanians. There was an uneasy, centrally imposed peace during Soviet times. With the pending collapse of the USSR, in December 1991 the autonomous region of Nagorno Karabagh voted overwhelmingly for independence. By then the war was well and truly underway, ending with a ceasefire in 1994. Since then, occasional flare-ups have undermined the peaceful resolution of the conflict.[ii]

While the 1994 ceasefire agreement effectively brought an end to full-scale warfare, it did not produce an entirely satisfactory outcome for either side. On the one hand, the victory of the people of Nagorno Karabagh did not translate into recognition as an independent state, and the threat of future war loomed over its head. On the other hand, Azerbaijan effectively lost control of several districts outside the autonomous region of Nagorno Karabagh, and increasingly used escalation of clashes to pressure its negotiation partner, Armenia, to agree to a compromise favorable to Azerbaijan. Due to the Minsk group failure of reaching a solution, Azerbaijan has openly admitted to the possibility of using force as a way of achieving its ends.[iii]

Armenian intelligence and imagery analysts have noted a shift in Azerbaijani strategy since 2014. Baku’s current strategy is now twofold. Firstly, it involves escalating tensions along the frontline at a snail’s pace to catch Armenia off guard, as shown by the gradual increase in heavy military hardware between 2014 and 2016 and the intensification of cross-border clashes. Secondly, as we saw last week, it involves applying full force on the day of attack, using blitzkrieg tactics to take opposing posts and to reclaim territory. Richard Giragossian, founding director of the Yerevan-based Regional Studies Center, notes: “Unlike each previous escalation, the Azerbaijani offensive campaign was based on a new strategy to seize, secure and sustain control of territory.”[iv]

On April 2nd, Armenia was caught off guard. While “tit for tat” escalations and the taking and retaking of military posts along the demarcation had been a constant feature of the 22 year ceasefire, with Special Forces periodically used to capture new trenches, the April 2nd offensive was on a significantly greater scale. Furthermore, the large scale indiscriminate bombing of civilian populations in villages on the frontline changed the character of the conflict. Smerch missiles and TOS A1 rocket launchers were also used for the first time. Armenia retaliated using howitzers to contain the oncoming attack. On the day of the surprise attack on April 2nd, the entire length of the Karabagh frontline was engulfed in fighting, with Karabagh forces taking the brunt of a concentrated effort by Azerbaijan in Talish and Madaghis in the North Eastern sector of Nagorno Karabagh.

With a strongly fortified frontline on the Karabagh side and many uninhabited villages across the entire length of the line of contact, questions have been raised as to why Azerbaijan subjected 3 inhabited villages to indiscriminate bombing. This may have been a tactic to kill the will of the Karabagh people, though a simpler explanation may be that it was intended to cause panic in the civilian population and divert attention while the Azerbaijani army proceeded to take important posts towards the Southern end of the frontline, while intensifying bombardment throughout the entire length of demarcation line.

At the same time, despite the potential firepower both countries have at their disposal, the war has been contained to the battle arena near the frontier villages. Both countries are bound by doctrines to ensure that the war does not draw in their reserves or, more importantly, major regional and global powers. For this reason, Armenia did not strike any key infrastructure behind the Azerbaijani frontline – a last resort in Armenia’s defense posture. Azerbaijan similarly limited its bombing to the frontier villages, and reports confirm that Stepanakert was not hit. However, the President of Azerbaijan made a clear announcement that Stepanakert would be targeted if Karabagh forces did not withdraw from the disputed territories. In response, President Serzh Sargsyan threatened Azerbaijan with retaliatory strikes. He also threatened to recognise Karabagh’s independence, a move that could have potentially escalated the conflict.

Azerbaijan successfully entered the outskirts of the village of Talish on the first day of fighting, with Karabagh’s conscript soldiers holding the front against Azerbaijan’s superior Special Forces. It is not known exactly when Karabagh began utilising its own Special Forces to conduct sweep-up operations in territory now controlled by Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan’s low-level tank incursion into the region tested Armenian anti-tank skills. Bellingcat has information that anti-tank battalions were utilised by Karabagh, as a number of Karabagh’s fatalities have been linked to various Special Forces for the battle of the heights overlooking Talish from the North and North East. Azerbaijani pro-Government news outlet Haqqin.az was quick to boast about the gains of their armed forces, particularly with regard to Talish.[v] Armenian news outlets also confirmed that there was a battle for the two villages.[vi] Nevertheless, the Azerbaijani military offensive was quickly slowed down. Karabagh’s forces began taking control of the battlefield and, by April 3rd,  the area around Talish had come back under their full control. However, they were still far from their goal of regaining all the lost posts, and the fighting continued in this battlefield until April 4th.

The withdrawal of Karabagh forces to the second line was a deliberate strategy aimed at opening up a clear firing ground for high precision artillery strikes into Karabagh trenches now occupied by Azerbaijani Special Forces. Forfeiting parts of the first line allowed them to secure the second lines and to ensure effective rebuff of Azerbaijani attacks and oncoming troop movement. Subsequently, trenches in Karabagh now occupied by Azerbaijan came under heavy fire from the Armenian side. So, while Karabagh’s armed forces lost up to 8 posts within the first two days of fighting,[vii], Azerbaijani Special Forces came under heavy bombardment in the newly seized trenches and were soon under siege as they were surrounded by Karabagh armed forces. Karabagh used carefully planned flanking tactics to ensure heavy losses against a more powerful opposition. This clearly explains the huge material and personnel losses on the Azerbaijani side. It is yet to be understood why Azerbaijan gave up so much in financial and human losses for incremental advances on the frontline.

On the night of April 3rd, President Aliyev announced a unilateral ceasefire. This was a shrewd political-military tactic aimed at winning the global information war and potentially confusing Karabagh’s military planners on the ground. Western news outlets and some world leaders were quick to blame Armenia for the continued fighting along the battlelines, yet in reality there was no actual ceasefire on the ground. On the contrary, Aliyev’s announcement was followed immediately by the intensification of Azerbaijani attacks on the Southern parts of Karabagh. This strategy was an attempt to divert Karabagh firepower holding the lines at Talish, Madaghis and Martakert. Analysts conclude that capture of territory was the first key political objective for Azerbaijan, and video footage of a staged news report of the Azeri victory in Talish indicates that the seizure of territories was important for internal consumption. A second, broader strategy could have been to break the line and take important posts towards the south of the frontline, as seen by the capture of Lele Tepe, a strategic point on a hill.[viii]

Two ongoing issues for Karabagh have been the fire-to-target cost ratio and the timely replenishing of overall stock reserves. With its limited budget, taking out helicopters or small RCS targets such as drones with sophisticated air defense equipment would be fairly costly for Karabagh in a limited war. Depleted stocks would also present an issue in the case of a renewed attack or all out-war within a short time frame. In the current war, Karabagh was left taking out one helicopter with an RPG and using man pads for their air defense, posing both a logistical and financial issue for Karabagh on the battlefield. While Azerbaijan did not test the full potential of Karabagh’s air defense forces, they were quick to stop the air war and resorted to the use of their new Kamikaze Drones from Israel,[ix] a difficult low-RCS target for Karabagh’s older air defense systems.

Azerbaijan was able to break the line and achieve vital military objectives. Despite eventually losing the heights of the village of Talish, they were still in control of 8 posts (as confirmed by the Armenian media[x]) and continued their fight to retain their newly seized ground with heavy bombardment along the frontline. By April 4th (day 3), villages on the Karabagh side were emptied of their inhabitants because of indiscriminate bombing, though the inhabitants of Martakert, a larger village at the bottom of the Northeast sector, remained steadfast. Karabagh forces were overwhelmed by the Azerbaijani offensive and were forced to ensure the safety of their civilian population. At the same time, they were engaged in heavy battles to retake lost posts and bring the frontier back to pre-war lines. By the end of April 4th, the Karabagh forces had pushed back the Azeri offensive and were in control of most of the posts lost during the first 2 days of fighting. The tactic of retreat, bombardment and flanking employed by the Karabagh forces ensured that the conscript Karabagh army was able to hold off the major initial thrust from Azerbaijani Special Forces, with Karabagh Special Forces following through to begin sweep up operations and retake seized trenches and villages.

While the bombing was contained to the frontline, the war was not limited to military conflict. Azerbaijan launched a major cyber, information and communication war in an attempt to sabotage Karabagh’s relief efforts and dampen morale. Azerbaijani hackers infiltrated news websites and social media in Karabagh and Armenian. Counter hackers retaliated by taking down Azerbaijan government sites. In addition, reports suggest that Karabagh ceased all war-related communications via civilian internet and phone lines. Nevertheless, a busload of volunteer fighters from Armenia was hit with a direct strike by a Kamikaze drone, and Bellingcat suggests that this was made possible by Azerbaijani interception of Karabagh’s communication lines.

Another issue for Karabagh has been the overwhelming number of volunteers from Armenia and the Armenian diaspora heading to Stepanakert join the war effort, creating a potential logistical nightmare for the Karabagh forces and for the state. As a result, volunteer recruitment was quickly limited to highly trained individuals and groups.

By day 4, Azerbaijan had lost all but two posts from their initial thrust. Azerbaijan’s military offensive and strong tactical planning were offset by a sophisticated defensive response by Karabagh forces. April 4th was the last day of heavy fighting, with Karabagh forces managing to disengage artillery and grad strikes and concentrating their efforts on retaking the two remaining posts. Azerbaijan responded by concentrating on their main objective, namely that of holding on to newly seized ground, and as the battles diminished along the frontline the battle for Lele Tepe and other unidentified lost posts intensified. By this time, major powers had initiated diplomatic means to make sure that the battle did not turn into an all-out war. Armenian posts and trenches lost in the fighting are yet to be identified, though information tells us that one post was lost in the Northeast sector near the battlefront of Talish.[xi] The trench shown in the staged Azerbaijani victory footage, claimed to be at Talish, could in fact have been filmed at one of the nearby trenches or at the NorthEast heights of Talish were serious fighting raged. Another captured post down south closer to Fizuli, called Lele Tepe, was confirmed by Azerbaijani news agency Day.az.[xii] Video footage also confirms Azerbaijani soldiers digging in at Lele Tepe,[xiii] and trenches identified by Google Images[xiv] can be matched with available video footage. The Karabagh government has admitted to the loss of two “unimportant” posts, though Bellingcat has determined that an unknown number of other posts are still under Azerbaijani control. Bellingcat’s analysis also deduces that the Southern post of Lele Tepe[xv] is a vital strategic point for Karabagh, which means that gaining this post has been a strategic victory for Azerbaijan, providing its forces with open ground of one kilometre in length from which to fire into Karabagh in future battles. This leads analysts to conclude that the heavy fighting in the north could have been an effort to divert Armenian efforts while Azerbaijan took posts on the lower points of the contact line.

Trench system

The exact length of the seized trench system is unknown, though reports suggest that approximately 1km is under Azerbaijani control.

Bellingcat can also conclude from contacts on the Azerbaijani side that the initial thrust was not as effective as anticipated. The objective had been to take villages along the frontline, as seen by news reports of victory by Azerbaijan. This was a shrewd tactic of multipronged continuous diversion attacks in the north and in the south to ensure that Karabagh’s line of defense was broken at any cost. However, from the moment that they were met with fierce resistance, Azerbaijan changed tactics, hence Aliyev’s ceasefire announcement. Aliyev was quick to announce a victory for the Azerbaijani side, with a number of videos surfacing on YouTube. For instance, a video published on April 3rd shows the heights of Talish from the Azerbaijani side, obviously taken on the day of fierce fighting when Karabagh forces were fighting for the outskirts of the village of Talish.[xvi] However, a staged victory footage that surfaced on YouTube on April 8th showed only a small glimpse of a mountaintop, with a reporter standing next to a signpost identifying the village of Talish[xvii]. We have yet to see recent confirmed footage of Talish from Azerbaijani news sources. Other heavy reporting from the hilltop of Lele Tepe also confirms Azerbaijan’s intense media campaign to show its forces as being victorious.

While the battle plans of both countries were sophisticated and well executed, the loss of personnel was greater than anticipated, especially on the Azerbaijani side. The ratio of Azerbaijani human and material loss versus territorial gain was high, especially in the light Azerbaijan only partially achieving its goal of taking strategic posts. The defender usually suffers one-third of the casualties of the attacker, and we know that Karabagh’s superior defense tactics ensured heavy losses among Azerbaijan’s Special Forces. Based on available statistics, the Karabagh side has approximately 50 dead, over 100 injured and 18 missing in action, though this figure increases by the day with new figures reaching beyond 70. This death toll illustrates the heavy battles that raged for the retake of lost posts. It is likely that releasing the number of dead incrementally is a tactic by Karabagh to downplay the death toll. From all of this, we can deduce that the number of losses on the Azerbaijani side would be higher. Using estimates from various sources, Bellingcat concludes that there were at least 400 Azerbaijani fatalities, which means that the fatality rates publicly cited by Azerbaijan are also underestimated. Other estimates are in the thousands, though a conservative estimate by Bellingcat suggests a range of between 400 and 500.

In initiating these latest clashes, Azerbaijan has pushed Armenia away from the negotiating table, undermined the Madrid principles and forfeited any possibility of peaceful resolution. Those in Armenia who had previously advocated a return of some of the disputed territories to Azerbaijan are now advising their government that this is no longer possible, in the light of Azerbaijan resorting to war. This is an unfortunate turn of events and does not bode well for the future. Prior to April 2nd, Azerbaijan faced a flexible negotiating partner who was willing to consider a compromise agreement. Azerbaijan’s impatience and ‘all or nothing’ approach, culminating in the April 2nd attacks, have resulted in the Armenian side digging its heels and Azerbaijan is now left with little to show for except the loss of a potential compromise agreement.

karabagh

The white circle surrounding the trench illustrates the trench system upon a hill seized by Azerbaijan. The red line represents the distance between the first and second lines of trenches of the Karabagh forces, a distance of approximately 500 metres.

 

[i] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TRWLP8t2DSA (In English, translated by Azerbaijani Radio Free Europe).

[ii]http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2015/09/war-looms-south-caucasus-150914105543346.html and

http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2016/04/nagorno-karabakh-contested-narratives-160405132828 126.html.

[iii] https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/russia-trying-maintain-balance-caucasus.

[iv] http://www.regional-studies.org/news/events/briefings/541-040416.

[v] http://haqqin.az/news/67706.

[vi] http://www.tert.am/en/news/2016/04/06/Talish/1985131 and http://www.tert.am/en/news/2016/04/06/Talish/1985140.

[vii] http://www.yerkir.am/news/view/104389.html.

[viii] http://news.day.az/azerinews/767758.html and

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IcepglIxf_s&nohtml5=False.

[ix] http://www.timesofisrael.com/azerbaijan-said-using-israeli-drones-against-armenians/ and

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/08/suicide-drone-used-for-first-time-in-fighting-between-azerbaijan/.

[x] http://www.yerkir.am/news/view/104389.html.

[xi] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HmxVL2dk87s&nohtml5=False.

[xii] http://haqqin.az/news/67706.

[xiii] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IcepglIxf_s

[xiv] 39°24’29.14″N 47°16’6.28″E.

[xv] 39°24’29.14″N 47°16’6.28″E.

[xvi] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CJ9m0o5BAcw&nohtml5=False.

[xvii] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HmxVL2dk87s

 

By Masis Ingilizian

The author would like to acknowledge the contribution of Dr Armen Gakavian in producing this article. He is also grateful to Ani Mejlumyan for her assistance with sources and for identifying key informants in the battlefield and in Baku.

Masis Ingilizian

Masis Ingilizian is a researcher at the Australian Institute for Holocaust and Genocide Studies. He was previously a regular contributor for the publication IMINT Analysis edited by Sean O’Connor. His research focuses on the Caucasus, Iran and Russia, spanning the fields of strategic warfare, geopolitics and geostrategy. Masis tracks developments in the Nagorno-Karabagh conflict and provides ongoing insight into the geopolitics and growing tensions in the region, using imagery and photos for analysis. He also writes on the foreign policies of both Russia and the West.

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185 Comments

  1. vafadar

    You need to define which countries you are talking about.. Nagorno-Karabakh? it is internationally recognized territory of Azerbaijan Republic and you need to indicate this fact in your post.. If you are talking about armenian government you have to answer this question why the hell armenian government soldiers are in nagorno-karabakh when armenia did not accept nagorno-karabakh as an independent state?.. The soldiers killed during 4 days of war from armenian army side shows that armenian soldiers are serving in NK while it is against armenian own constitution and all international norms.. it shows that there is no even so called “Nagorno-Karabakh” Republic, Armenia simply occupied Azerbaijan territories and will play for it

    Reply
  2. Arthur

    vafadar, there is so much untrue information in your comment it is not even funny.

    1. No country in the world, I repeat NO country in the world recognizes Nagorno-Karabakh Republic as part of AZ, it is most likely one of the tales of great-old aliev family. NKR has never been part of AZ, it is not now, and it will never be part of AZ (it was always an autonomous state). AM does not recognize it because the status quo that was before the 4 day war, initiated by AZ, was in AM favor. AM knew that in case of recognition AZ (knowing that it will be the last chance) would start a full scale war, that is why AM decided to postpone it until the Minsk group would resolve the issue peacefully. And pay attention that nowhere else in the history of humanity the winning side of a war agrees to negotiate anything with the losing side, especially when the lost country started that war, so only the acceptance of sitting around a table is a great step from AM in order to resolve the conflict peacefully.

    2. AM and NKR is one nation, there are no Armenians and NKRians, there is only one nation, that is why if any side of our 2 countries is in danger, we start defending it, no matter where we are born or what we do. because we are ONE nation.

    3. I wonder why all AZ people use the word “international” so much. Do you know anything about international? Do you think all the “international” is interested in a problem you crated for yourself? Are you even aware that threatening (I believe you meant “pay for it” not “play for it”) someone, or a whole country is internationally regarded as a low behavior, only suitable for low people? Did you know that many killed from the AZ side were terrorists of an internationally recognized terrorist organization called ISIS? Do you even understand how much trouble can be hidden for AZ in the word “international”? Can you understand that AM is part of the “international” for about 6000 years and we know much better how to deal with international? Why are you so obsessed with that word?

    4. AZ is a very young state. As such it had to be created on a land taken from someone as all the land in that territory already belonged to AM. It all happen after the end of the WW1, when Lenin was creating his stupid dream of worldwide socialism. And today’s AZ was created on AM land to grab the oil reserves and stop any disputes between AM and caucasian tatars migrated from middle Asia (look my other comment on how AZ was created). So now when AZ talks about AM occupying AZ is just immature.

    So vafadar, before you make a meaningful conclusion about this tender issue, you must travel beyond the walls of aliev’s strong propaganda full of hate towards AM. For reference, I will tell you that not even in the AM army, we do not use the word “enemy”, it is never an enemy, it is always the “adversary” side. We do not plant a hate toward any other nation, not even turks that killed 1.5 million peaceful Armenians in their own homes, because we always believe that it is not the nation, it is their government. We fight against governments not people.

    And please, vafadar, tell your government to remove the artillery firing posts from villages full of peaceful population. it is inhumane towards your own nation.

    Reply
      • Arthur

        stop insults, or you will hat battle too. NKR was recognized as a sovereign state by stalin, who created az. NKR is a sovereign state who gained its independence from ussr just like russia, am, az and other states. now am does not recognize the independence of nkr so that az will not start a full scale war, although you are already too close as ambassador in moscow said that az does not want to solve this issue peacefully. just go to the same website and look for articles written not only by az but also other people. now a lot of countries, including political and economical giants like china is ready to recongize the independence of nkr after am does. am will recognize it if az starts a full out war. so before you want to come up with a heroic statement, know that you live in a country full of propaganda and outside of which relies the truth.

        Reply
        • Djahangir

          Many words, little sense. You first started with Stalin&USSR, both of which are history now, and then you said that “if … then …”; We can build thousands of variants, but it is all just plans, not reality. As for now, NKR is not recognised. And you didn’t give any reference to articles written by “other” people. I know it better than you in what sort of country I live, but I also know what sort of countries (unfortunately) our geographical neighbours are. If you can provide any real references, do it! Put up or shut up!

          Reply
          • Arthur

            how falsely smart you are my friend, if you think your wikipedia is worth something you must be a little boy or a girl who just learned about it and wants to share his findings. what I said is something that you can learn from in a country again, with a propaganda as strong as in north korea, which is shameful for your governement and your nation. the whole geopolitics is based on if … then… approach, so what I said again is something that you can learn from. all my references are not going to open in az or open as a porn website, because again you live in a country with a propaganda as strong as in north korea. you know only that part of your country that your government wants you to know, and your neighbors are actually trying to free you from aliev’s dictatorship, we want him to stop attacking NKR and AM, free thousands of political prisoners, stop stealing from his own nation and stop building a golden empire where only his family is allowed. I am glad that you know one of the best sayings in the world (put up or shut up) I really like it. but I do not feel like you used it in a correct way, so before going all crazy think about what the international community is going to think about you and az.

          • Djahangir

            Don’t worry about me! Even if I will not have a chance to open those references, others will. Come on and publish them, so others could see that your words are more than just words!

            P.S.: Considering censorship: Probably because of big advances in science from Armenia’s Academy of Sciences, you’ve never heard of something called VPN 😉

          • Roseanne

            Since you guys are on topic, could you please tell me why does Aliev recognize those Azeris as national heros for beheading Armenians? We can’t forget Ramil Safarov and the recent case during April war when a member of your military cut an Armenian soldier’s head, publicized in social media then was seen as recieveing an award That is beyond sick!So before using big words I ask you were is the humanity? My country doesn’t have a propaganda of hatred towards Azeris, we are people, all mothers are hurting. Loss is a loss but your barbaric government is taking it to another level by brainwashing people and allowing such crimes. No religion approves this either. You sound an intelligent guy so I want to hear from you on this topic. Thanks

          • Arthur

            djahangir everybody in the world knows the truth, except azerbaijan. so there is no need to publish any documents. there are plenty of them online. whoever is interested can just use google and stay away from .az domain and the truth will be in front of their eyes.

            as for the Armenian Academy of Sciences, I will tell you that that institution had a huge role in creating the first computer in USSR, so just to cover your years worth of hatred towards anything Armenian, please pay some respect.

            considering censorship, I mean cmon aliev prohibited the whole nation, including you to search for any information about the 4 day war, so you just signed your own death sentence by telling your government how you break the rules. hope they will not put you in jail like other 10,000 political prisoners. every news reporter must have had a special permit from baku to film what is going on in the border with NKR. a reporter of LifeNews even was thrown away from az for filming without the “special” permission. I mean everybody knows everything about azerbeijan except for the people living in there, so instead of trying to downgrade Armenia (you cant I am too informed) try to fight aliev to end the monarchy and stop paying for his yachts and parties to which you are not invited.

          • Djahangir Lankaranli

            Back to the question: Will you provide references or not?

          • Arthur

            hahhaha djahangir why you think you are so smart when you are not ? I told you already why I am not going to publish any references. if you do not understand the reason please read my comment again and again until you understand or tell you teacher to read and explain it to you or eventually go to aliev and let him explain it to you. if you still do not understand the reason than you know its life, you were not so lucky, deal with it.

            and please answer Roseanne’s question if you want to be back to the question. why is ramil safarov (a coward who beheaded a sleeping man) a hero to a whole azeri nation, if we can call azeri a nation? why is that high ranked military officer (another coward who beheaded an 18 yeras old Yazidi soldier and was posing with it) is a hero to you?

            dont you have someone useful for the Earth we live on? dont you have someone smart in that country of 8 mln people? is not there even one scientist, artist, a champion of sports (without any bribes)? I guess you all like that beheading activity, it is an inseparable part of your daily life.

            and after all this you accuse Armenians of committing a genocide of azeris, it is absurd. khojalu events, so called genocide was organized and implemented by azeri to be president heydar aliev, he created that scene to show the people that the current government can not handle the situation and eventually heydar became the president starting the wealth of aliev family. those events occurred in territories controlled by azeris, how could Armenians mass kill azeris in an area controlled by azeris, do you even hear yourself?

  3. Roseanne

    Arthur I’d like to connect with you. I’m sure Djahangir might too. After all you guys are having one interesting discussion and hopefully he’ll open up books and not some Aliev made up resources. Btw Djahangir don’t get yourself too deep in those books or else you might end up like Khadija Ismayilova and you know better you don’t want to go that far. Since I’m sure you are well aware of the details of her case, I’m sure you also know who Amal Clooney is, her role in Khadija’s release and why her husband was part of Aurora Award Committee….oh as for resources, just google buddy. Peace

    Reply
  4. David

    This article is pretty biased as an armenian wrote it.
    One informed person wrote: “Karabakh earlier called Arsaok or as you pronounce it Artsakh used to be a part of the Christian Caucasian Albania, Herodot wrote about this.
    Caucasian Albainia people are one of the ancestors of Azeri Turkic people.
    Armenians calling yourselves Armenians, you are using the name of the geographical location Arminiya: Hyes, you are in reality tribes of Hurrit and Gipsy origin, coming from Asia Minor.
    The alphabet you are using is a version created by the Mesrob Mashdots , he created it using 36 letters out of 52 letters of the Caucasian Albania alphabet.
    Everything is fake about armenians. the Armenian Gregorian church lives in renovated Caucasian Albania churches and they deny everything. and Armenians create psychosis before invading. Armenians make plots. Armenians massacre, burn, torture people, while invading and deny it. Armenians befriend wealthy and strong nations to achieve their goals and then deny their help, claiming the victory is done only by their bravery. but this is Internet time. Armenians cannot fool people any more, fake Armenians.

    We know what Azeris went through because of Armenians, Russian allies. With Russian help, Armenians killed 2.5 mln Turkic Azeri people since 1828. Armenia occupies, according to the united nations document 20% of Azerbaijan’s territory, (if you do not believe me, do not take my words for granted, check the United Nations Security Council resolutions!); there are 800, 000 refugees and displaced people from historic Azeri lands in official Armenia and from Karabakh. Karabakh means Black Garden in Azeri Turkic. Azerbaijan has the most displaced people per capita in the world, somehow due to ruthless propaganda , and trying to falsify the history, not a lot of people know about that. Rumi philosophy: You started as a snake now you are a seven head dragon: the bait is in the greed!” Armenians want everything: their lands, their cuisine and their songs, and then they, modern Armenian people try to belittle the Azeris, the usual Hayastani (armenian) way.

    Reply
    • Roseanne

      David there is so much bs in your comment about Armenia and its history that I’m not going to comment and try to educate you as I can tell you are a byproduct of your government who brainwashed its people for years.Oh and you are pretty late on our conversations with your fellow countryman Dhahangir. At least the guy seems on track with truth but you are far, very far from reality and facts.You should spend some time reading then make a comment not to make yourself sound this stupid. Sorry but you did.

      Reply
      • David

        I really do not care how it feels to you armenians. it will always feel that the myth of the Greater Hayastan from sea and the sea is a true story and all the other ancient nations are coming out of the sea bottom, or from somewhere in Asia, while you armenians are coming from Asia minor just please look at your old names they sound like Indian names, because you belong there. You came to Caucasus after the decree of the Russian tsar. Modern Armenia is an artificial country in Caucasus created by Russian tzars to create a buffer zone in front of expanding Islamic influence, like they are doing now in Ukraine being afraid of European influence not to divide Russia. That is why you armenians are an artificial mono nation and the Azerbaijanis are not. The Azeries are a good mix of many smaller nations with the Turkic jist. That is the proof already that the Azerbaijanis are local! This is the historical fact and the documents exists to prove that. Just read prominent Russian playwright and diplomat Griboyedov’s letters (1828) to his friend where he writes that they couldn’t find anybody in Karabakh to translate for incoming Hayastani (Armenian) families as there was nobody speaking Armenian ,( population was speaking Turkic Azeri!) and they sent to Tiflis (Tiblisi, Georgia) for an interpreter. You armenians are used to cite your own “sources” which as a miracle coincide with the direction of your expansionist foreign policy, which has been so far so well funded by the Armenian billionaires in the United States and supported by the Russian military, as your country of Armenia is an affiliate of Russia. I am sure Wikipedia where everybody like yourself can make a comment is not considered a reliable source. And by the way. The Turkic people are Caucasian people mostly , in the overwhelming majority 75% they are light skinned and belong to the Caucasian race , while you armenians are referring them to the mongoloid one. And you armenians..LOL… sound like you armenians are a distinguished historian yourself. There were no Armenians in the area of Goyja and Zangezur before Stalin are, Zangezur was given to Armenians in the Stalin era. The churches all over Azerbaijan and on historical lands of Azeri which are in Armenia now (as your capital itself is an Azeri city “Yerevan”) are of Caucasian Albania, those churches ARE NOT armenian gregorian. You do not have to refer to the ancient historians here, but not, there is nothing that can be proven to you Armenians and the Azerbaijanis cannot prove to you that you have occupied Azerbaijan’s territory (20%) and have done Khojaly genocide. You armenians are like a seven-head bully dragon , smashing everything on your way like bully which has been working hard over years on making the image look like he is one of the seven beauties. Disgusting. I would like to call this quits.

        Reply
        • Arthur

          david if you just try once reading whatever aliev gave you to read with changing the places of azerbaijan and Armenia you will become a lot more educated person, you are very close to the truth, just two words and that is it, just try it, for the sake of aliev’s wealth, try it, please.

          look david you are a threat to your own nation is aliev in such a bad financial state that he cant hire good propagandists? ok look azeris say that mono nation is whoever has 90% or more of the dominant nation. AM 97 (or something) az 91%. so here again you are too a mono nation just like Armenia so again just do your homework, propaganda is not a joke and a whole sheep-nation is watching your every word to repeat, be careful 🙂

          I dont find any connection between having national minorities and being local, it is ridiculous david, you have to think before talking

          david I guess aliev has paid personnel who writes stuff and others who translate the Armenian documents, facts and proofs and simply changes the words AM with az. you belong to the second group. simply changing the words will not get you anywhere, any lie has a short lie. especially azeri lies, they are so transparrent it is like reading aliev’s fantasy, actually it IS aliev’s fantasy

          Armenian history dates back to several thousand years, we have very influential contribution in worls science, art, medicine, culture. Armenian heritage is enormous, much larger than azeri oil wells it useless to fight against us, you have to embrace our presence and contribute to the good things that Armenians do around the world. nobody can kill us, nobody can question our history and the origins of our nation, not even animal-turks did not succeed in exterminating us during the Armenian Genocide. so now your tiny little propaganda puppets feeding off directly from the aliev’s pocket can do no damage to our spotless reputation with civilized countries and states all around the globe, we know how to live, because we did it the longest.

          sometimes when I am encountered to a brainwashed azeri sheep like you I really wish to see you in person and see how you are going to say it in front of me. because lying is much harder when you are looking at the person who you lie to.

          there we go, the khojalu failytale, you made it david, you got your paycheck! hahahaha khojalu, you are a shameless coward nation. you created khojalu, you killed your own kind so that heidar aliev will become the tyrant atop of your nation. you killed them just the same way as you’ve killed Armenians and russians baku and sumgait, it has the same signature, so if you are devoted to your supreme leader even just a little bit you should not talk about it publicly. it is a shameful act to say the least, for all azeris living and dead and those who are yet to be born. you are a jackel that loves to hit from behind and run away, you have no dignity and that is the way it is going to stay, because how an azeri can be a good person? it is impossible, the dna is faulty.

          can you tell me one azeri who did something good for the world and humanity. only one, I am asking for one azeri name who was or is useful for the world, just one who would justify other azeris breathe our oxygen. just one (1) there is none. you are like parasites with your brother turks, useless breed of potential terrorists and lawless flock of oil guzzling bacteria

          Reply
        • Mark

          David, I am neither Armenian nor Azeri, not even close to any of these folks. I was curious to learn more about this conflict and by chance ended up here. Reading your comments (just focusing on one now), it appears any moderately educated person is likely to endure unnecessary heavy stress trying to rationalize with you.

          Back to your comment (I will spare the others for the above reason): Armenians “came to Caucasus after the decree of the Russian tsar” ? Which tasr, what Russians? When Armenians were being referred to and recorded by BC (before Christ!) Greek, Roman historians, travelers (and not only) – as an example consider Strabo, Appian, Xenophon (if you are familiar with any of these) – the Russians were not even formed as nation, let alone a government or kingdom. East Slavs only started populating Western Russia in the 6th-7th cent eventually leading up to the formation of Kievan Rus in the 9th cent… Have you connected the dots by now?

          I almost never leave any comment on any forum, but this is too much and I had to express myself. I hope you understand these kind of statements not only make you look extremely uneducated and illogical, but create quite a negative perception about your people. If this is the narrative of Azeri government about history, then pity us all.

          Please take a chance to learn from a vast amount of knowledge available out there in the world, or you will spend the rest of your life in the ‘dark ages’ – not a fun place to be for any human in the 21st century where information and knowledge is shared at the speed of light. Do something good for yourself. Learn, grow and stand out. Good luck.

          Reply
    • Arthur

      David stop changing your name and spreading the aliev bs all over the poor internet. I bet albanians do not even want to hear about your lies about them.

      understand one thing, stealing from someone is not good, not even if you are stealing from albanians. so david tell me what is the difference between stealing from Armenian and stealing from albanians.

      you ancesters are lost in the history. you do not have ancestors, you are a nomadic nation. you travel around the world and choose a place to live for a determined duration of time after you start your travel again to choose a different place. Now the time has come, leave our land alone and continue your search another place to live, it is in your blood, you cant fight it, that is who you are. being nomadic is not a bad thing, just ask cigans, they love it, you are like them.

      ok look you hateful azeri. it is always easy to change the words AM and az and spread around the world, but like you said it is internet time and people are so smart that they just come and see for themselves and they see the truth that is worth much much more than the bribes that aliev gives out to “people” like you to spread the desease of lies in English (because the level of education in az is so low that no azeri can speak fluently in English)

      There is a group of fake countries, it is called GUAM (Georgia, Ukraine, azerbaijan, Moldova) I am not exactly for the other countries, but for az it is perfectly true. stalin has created that problem and now we deal with it. simple glance at international history books will tell you that. azeris came from middle asia and are part of uygur tribes, just like turks, and being nomadic tribes they settled in Armenia this time for a short period of time and now they are little by little moving out of the region.

      during the Am-az war russian special forces were fighting for az in order to stop Armenian from getting independence from ussr. so this time, too, they switched AM with az and here we have david talking about it. but if you ask his father somewhere outside of alievland, he will tell you that they had a very shameful defeat against small Armenian volunteer fighting units. during the 4 day war the same thing happened, that is why we had under 100 deaths, and az had over 2000 and a huge amount of blown up tanks, canons and helicopters. the dead azeris were so much that they had to send some of them to turkey to hide them, that is something that even aliev agrees.

      if AM killed 2.8 mln azeris then you must be at least a little bit less in numbers, or you must be rabbits.

      20% of lost az land is numerically correct. AM freed its land from unlawful inhabitants. you started the war, you lost the war, you lost 20% of your land, and now you cry about it, it does not make sence david, you have to change your story here, make it more dramatic, throw a genocide in or something. name a place that was in control of azeris at that time, like khojalu for example and tell that AM killed azeris in azeri controlled territory, make people laugh at you, we all want to laugh, by the way why did 1 mln refugees become 800,000 did you forget your numbers, someone did not do his homework, aliev says it is 1 mln, so you have to say the same thing too, remember, or he will not pay you any longer (you got one strike)

      your approach to AM is like a jackel would behave when rejected a piece of a deer. dont cry david, dont cry. i know azeris love to cry. but save your tears for now. karabakh is a part of Artsakh (one of provinces in Armenia that is much greater than NKR) it has a azeri name, because of stupid and uneducated ways of stalin he just decided that that part of land must be called karabakh, just like he decided names of other disputable territories of other post soviet countries. Artsakh is part of Armenia for for than 2000 years and a small part of it is karabakh for like 100 years, you do the math. so david you need to change the story here too, maybe throwing in the same genocide would be a good idea 🙂

      Reply
      • David

        Pathetic armenians for making me out for “Azerbaijani”
        Do not get offended, I am shocked,
        Azeries DNA corresponds to the DNA of the relics of humans in the Azykh cave, so please do not send ther origins to Central Asia.
        They are ancient humans and of course they spread all over Asia, you can find Turkic people in China and even Europe. Turkic people do not want to harm Armenians, who always claim the opposite. You, modern Hayastani always hate the innocent Azerbaijanis, invade and kill them.For 200 years of Dashnaktsyutun party you have killed millions of Azeries in Sheki, Kuba, Baku in the beginning of the 20th century under the Bolshevik names and after Stalin’s decrees took over thousands of hectares of lands in Zangezur guberniya near Goija lake which you call Sevan and after that Nakhichevan was separated from the mainland of Azerbajian. not enough for you hungry aggressive wild armenians. You have made 800, 000 Azeries refugees out their historical lands. Then it is not enough you declared Daglig Garabag independent (so called), making more Azeries out of their motherland, you have started the Karabakh war declaring their territories again, the Azeris have lost 30, 000 people in the Karabakh war, they have the biggest number in the world for refugees and displaced people per capita, you modern Armenian people have destroyed their cultural masterpieces in Karabakh, you have occupied 7 adjacent regions with Russian help, you have made a Khojaly genocide. Now their region is considered unstable because of your constant territorial claims with Russian military support. the list goes on and on..so sorry…Armenian trolls
        I will not fall into your manipulated lies, propaganda and nonsense.

        Reply
        • Arthur

          wow i guess even aliev’s fantasy is limitless, you have a cave where you all came out of and it is like 10000 km away and you say that you are local? how does aliev explain that? and if you have a place where you all came out of, why dont you go right back in there and let us live peacefully on our land.

          turks do not call europe or china their home country, but for some reason you call Armenia your home, and I would like to know why is that?

          hahahhaha look david or whatever your name is, you must be a total brainwash. it is ridiculous how do you live on Earth with that brain of yours?

          turkish people live in china because that is where they originate, with azeris and many other nomadics turks originate from uygur tribes that are in central asia. you belong to central asia so go back there.

          if you believe that turks planned and executed the killings of 1.5 mln pecaful population without wanting to do it, then you must be paid more than I thought. turks not only want to kill Armenians, they want to kill greeks, asirians, yazidis and everybody who is not muslim and who is on their path towards creating their sick ambition the turan. but it is not going to happen, because Armenians are here to stay forever, while turks eventually with azeris will hit the road again to find another piece of land to call home, steal their history, kill and rape (like they did in Germany) the local population and spread the turkish disease.

          will there be a time when you would stop crying about the same old story about lost territories and great azerbaijan, it is not funny, nobody buys it, think about something else. everybody knows the truth.

          you lost your own war with losing 20% of territories, just say it for yourself 20%, that is like every 5th square meter of your home 🙂 and you lost it because you underestimated the rigid spirit of Armenians, we are very intelligent and heroic nation, unlike your idol ramil, who killed a sleeping man with an axe, that is your hero david, that is who you and your child want to become. russian special forces were and are fighting for az during the war of 90s. and now you use their weapons. you had az personnel of terrorist isis fighting for you, that is isis, az supports isis by sending their soldiers to commit the horrible crimes that isis is notorios for. aliev supports them financially, too, otherwise isis commanders would not accept az personnel. you also had turkish soldiers fighting for you, who underwent throughout training.

          but all that crashed with a shameful noise against our unbreakable souls who still stand tall in their places, you can not win Armenia. nobody can. many tried and ALL of them failed, so will you the next time you come close to our borders.

          hey stranger, david started to copy your vocabulary too 🙂

          like I said in the other comment david go and preach honesty to your kids and fight for a peaceful future.

          Reply
          • stranger

            Arthur, I promised to stay away from your nice discussion. Don’t bother and you wouldn’t be bothered 🙂

      • David

        Also arthur, very nice of you to insult a nation with your typical uncivilized way of thinking. Your last paragraph of your second comment just showed what a very sad and little closed minded brain you have. I knew it, armenians will always remain the aggressive, hatefull subordinated poor nation. I will not waist my time anymore as you only spread nonsense like a virus.

        Reply
        • Arthur

          hahahahaha david david, what did you do to upset aliev? why did he stop paying you? were not you qualified enough? or maybe too qualified for aliev to afford? no rather the first one 🙂 so long david, please do not fight on the aggressor’s side, be useful to humanity and tell the truth, because the truth always prevails and those who lie get their punishment.

          Reply
  5. Roseanne

    Hahaha you sure are good at copying and pasting my dear. Didn’t bother reading that bs you got for whatever sources.Keep praising Ramil Safarov and others who behead people and call them national heros then call yourself humans. Oh and if you are man enough and have balls go against your Aliev like Khadija Ismailova then feel good on this platform. Peace

    Reply
  6. stranger

    “President Aliyev openly admitted that he had felt compelled to act in response to the lack of progress in peace talks facilitated by the Minsk Group”

    Why the Minsk Group has stuck? That must be the key, since the two countries will never be able to come up with a mutually agreed solution. Kharabakh most probably must be Armenian just as the matter of the fact. The problem is also in the other occupied territories, which are less likely Armenian. But from Armenian prospective those buffer territories are essential to support Kharabakh and connect it to Armenia.

    Historically Russia is considered as Armenian ally, because of the same religion and the history of the wars with Persians and Turks. Armenia is a member of ODKB (an treaty of mutual safety) with Russia and a number of the closest post soviet countries, while Azerbaijan is not. On the other hand Azerbaijan is also a Russian’s trade partner, and in no way Russia wants to get another enemy which potentially has an influence to Russian Muslims, including btw Crimea Tatars.

    In a similar situation when Saakhashvily attacked South Osetia in 2008 regardless of Russian peace makers there, Russia did brought in the army. And got the harsh international reaction, as if it invaded Georgia first and w/o any reason. Now, from the Russian side the same scenario is impossible. If Russia ever decided to interfere other than diplomatically, it would not only be condemned by the world after the known events in Ukraine, but also would aggravate the conflict with Turkey, with the following possible destabilization of all Islamic Russian Caucasus…

    Reply
    • Arthur

      the problem is that aliev is now between two fires and wherever he leans he gets burnt. he does not need NKR, nor any territory of modern az that does not have oil underneeth. on the other hand, he is a tyrant he craves wealth and steels every bit of money from his own nation, driving them towards the unknown. when the oil prices dropped, he could not feed the population with oil any more and the national currency lost its value by 50% in one night, can you imagine 50%!!!!!!!!!!!!! in one night!!!!!! this led to massive protests by azeris and all national minorities who wanted independence, like Talishes, Lezgins and others and they would have gotten it, if he did not start the war to give them another problem to think about. Caucasus is a very hard knot and each conflict has similar origins but are very different, and are treated differently.

      russians are our allies both on paper and de facto, we have strong economic ties. but at the same time he sells weapons to az which is unacceptable for an ally, so there are problems and we can not call russia as our big brother like az could call turkey.

      russia, like any other megapower of the world wants control over territories, and it does not matter who lives there as long as he is in control and none of them do anything without telling him first, both economically and military. thats why he is not interested in the resolving of the conflict, because in that case he would be regarded as an aggressor towards the side who lost, he wants this to be just the same way because if there is no conflict than there is no need for a white dove and the winning country would become more powerful and start to disobey little by little.

      I do not think that the islamic russian caucasus or any other nation, even china or the usa can stop russia of doing whatever he wants in the caucasus area, because people living here are more prone to russia, (I guess it has something to do with ussr)

      Reply
      • stranger

        “he wants this to be just the same way because if there is no conflict than there is no need for a white dove and the winning country would become more powerful and start to disobey little by little.”
        Guess what?? There is exactly the same theory why US is interested in clashing countries at post soviet space (as well as in the middle east), Ukraine vs Russia, Russia vs Europe, etc. To avoid reintegration and raising of a single economic and military rival to US interests in Europe. That was discussed a lot by many US ‘think-tanks’ inside US itself, like Bzhezinsky and others, you can find them on Wikipedia.

        So which one of the theories is right, or both, or somebody is fooling us both?? 🙂

        “even china or the usa can stop russia of doing whatever he wants in the caucasus area”
        But what does Russia want at Caucasus, is it going to be at the expense of the Caucasian countries’s interests, do you have examples? The harshest Chechen wars, the conflict with Georgia on Soutch Osetia, all was rather a reaction and a huge problem for Russia, neither a strategy, nor any benefit at all.

        Reply
        • Arthur

          well recently the ways of doing things by russia is suspiciously similar of whose done by the usa. it is a fact, like entering syria and leaving 10 km mutual border open for isis to continue his dark work. ukraine, he entered and did not complete his mission. this is the nato way of doing it. maybe they agree that this is the right way, but in the long run it lowers the level of trust from those like AM who is a devoted ally and we too will start thinking about having more than one big ally. this is excellent for AM but not so good for russia.

          well i guess the time changes, russia is just another country that puts his own interest before anybody’s else, and of course he does not want powerful neighbors. however, he must think about its allies all around the world, that he lost during the last 10-15 years, because you know you cant be strong alone. the lifting of embargos from Cuba and Iran did also shutter the dependence of them on russia, more Iran of course, who is closer and stronger.

          well both those conflicts ended in favor of russia. chechen republic stayed in russia and they live wonderful together, and the small parts of georgia is kind of annexed to russia, they are russian citizens and feel safe being so. I guess unless he has an interest of gaining a territory he does not want to be involved heavily in any conflict in caucasus. and being the white dove is enough for him.

          and trust me in caucasus the international media or opinion does not have a huge influence, therefore we all know that if he decided to take over NKR, we are the ones who is going to prevent it and not wait for what the usa or eu has to say about it. because they are always too late and soft, trying not to hurt anyone’s feelings, being as neutral as possible. recently we learned a lot about the international media, russia, az and others, so we do not believe in russian magic or the eu’s punishment of the guilty any more.

          Reply
          • stranger

            Well, what particularly do you want Russia to do or to change doing as a larger partner/hopefully a friend of Armenia? Because you sound like disappointed in Russia. It is clear how everything started when Armenia was looking for protection from the aggressive Islamic neighbors centuries ago. But now, did you expect Russia to take your side vs AZ? I believe you didn’t invite the Russian peace makers in NKR back to 90th and managed that yourself. Another question, is Eurasian Economic Union working?

          • stranger

            Excuse me if the questions are not very polite, it is just very interesting.

          • stranger

            Arthur, I don’t always agree with you, but I’m much more impressed by the wild guys from the other side, whether they are AZerbaijanians or possibly just trolls. I’d better stay away, since I know little about this topic.

          • Arthur

            well what I really want from russia and maybe same for israel and turkey is to stay away from this conflict. because really we could handle it back in 90s and with the pleads of heydar aliev the war has stopped with AM freeing only 20% of our territories, that was the time when the second city of az, gyanja (Armenian Ganzak) was completely evacuated and basically it was ours, plus the az enclave (Armenian Nakhijevan) was also going to be freed, because all the population went to turkey, through the little gap. but again with the help of turkey russia made us stop where we were and free only what is really necessary for relative safety of NKR.

            so if those 3 countries would just stay away from us and az we would solve that problem in a 15 minutes. the statehood of az is vulnerable. if they do not have oil they would disintegrate into smaller states (Talishstan, Lezgistan and several others, I do not remember the names). but Armenian statehood is not vulnerable. we will create a country even if only one Armenian stays alive, which is very unlikely of course, because we have the events of the 90s as proof.

            I am disappointed in russia because it plays a double game by selling weapons to a state that helps his undercover enemy (turkey). this is kind of a behavior of a week. also I feel betrayed by them, because I believe that AM does not deserve it, we always supported russia on every stage their every desision, even those who would harm our own needs, knowing that they would do the same. but it turns out that we need more smaller partner then one big, who is not really a partner.

            I heard some stories of EAU benefits, but I think it was too early. none of the states were ready for it. but I am positive that it will get better as the time goes by and with possible partnership with china and india it will soon be the strongest and most expensive union on earth.

      • stranger

        …Georgia vs Russia, Ukraine vs Russia, Armenia vs Azerbaijan and both of them against Russia, Lithunia/Latvia vs Russia, Estonia is late as always, but will definitely wake up, just give them some time to react, Belarus has a dictator but EU has recently removed sanctions from him, according to the eternal Divide and Rule, etc, etc, etc… Hope we would not hear anything about Tadzhikistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, another potential hot spot, in the nearest future, with Kazakhstan is the most modest, calm and stable of them all. Who is winning of all of that – Russia, or anybody on the post soviet space?

        Reply
        • Arthur

          stranger, aliev gives a lot of money to international spy programs like galileo, for example, they need to know a lot about us to try to have an edge, that is why they hire professionals from all over the world, who by the way do not do their job well, I have had several cases that they just gave up or tried to block me from the conversation 🙂

          I know that people may not be agree with me all the time, and its fine. that is why we have free discussion points like bellingcat, the thing is that I have experience of dealing with several key nations for this topic (like russians, azeris, Armenians, etc.) and I dig out a lot of information by just asking people who I know have the answer, they are politicians, veterans, doctors, really a lot of people know everything. that is why whatever I write differs from the general opinion and it is very hard for az to comment on whatever I say, I hit the bull’s eye, the prohibited subjects 🙂

          Reply
  7. stranger

    …The interesting question is why did Aliyev choose this particular moment to attack and who else is behind him? Did Turkey encouraged him, since Erdogan stated he would always support Azerbaijan. Were there other interested geopolitical players?

    The dropping oil prices affected Azerbaijan harshly and perhaps made to return to the other problems such as the old conflict with Armenia. Moreover Aliyev probably understood that Russia would not interfere after Ukraine and the recent conflict with Turkey on Syria and was assured by Turkish support. So while in the first turn that was probably related to the stuck Minsk process. That might also have been targeted against Russia and towards Turkey or at least to bargain something from Russia.

    But even if Russia would not interfere, Azerbaijan understands that Armenia along is able to give a strong response and that would be a difficult and a full-scale war, which is hardy acceptable. So having just tried to test the reaction, Azerbaijan stopped. The most interesting question is why? What was the idea to just test and don’t finish? And what is going on currently, is it all over for now?

    Does it make any sense or naïve?

    Reply
    • Arthur

      az chose this exact moment because of economic situation of the country, they dropped the value of the national currency by 50%!!!! they cut salaries, and now they are preparing for another devaluation of the national currency. plus they attacked the day before Panama papers published the great wealth of aliev family in the offshores. it was to maneuver the people’s thoughts away from panama papers (before they would be able to shut down all the related websites in az) to the war. also because of tight information control he could falsify the results of the war, saying whatever he wants, which is exactly what happened.

      az does not do anything without the “OK” from russia and turkey, he is not smart or independent enough for that, plus he always must have a plan b because his army is made of nomadic minds that do not contain the sense of fatherland, and so they retreat easily. and if he starts a war all on his own the events of the 90s will repeat and they will start crying now about 40% of lost land and 2 mln refugees.

      the idea of the 4 day war was to distract the attention of the general population away from the wealth of aleiv clan and to score some sort of even made up victory to keep a face in front of hos nation, because he has continuously promised to bring the 20% of territories back.

      the current situation is comparably quiet, it is connected with the F1 race that is taking place in baku. this is how they want to present the world that everything is alright on the border not to scare the tourist inflow. the present quietness is another proof that az is the attacker, because if it were us we would not let them have their event.

      Reply
      • stranger

        “az does not do anything without the “OK” from russia and turkey”
        Either Russia or turkey, not at the same time in the light of the recent events..

        AZ currency dropped definitely because of the falling oil prices. America definitely triggered the oil fall by releasing sanctions from Iran and removing the ban for exporting own oil which was in effect for like 40 last years. Hardly we can relate that to sanctions or to call that the only reason for such global changes, but the coincidence is remarkable.

        I don’t know why Russia used to sell weapon to AZ and Armenia at the same time. One explanation was to maintain a balance. But actually I doubt there were any meaningful strategy at all behind that. During the last expensive oil years AZ received a lot of money and they could have bought the weapon if not from Russia, then from somebody else.

        Armenia is a Russian friend, but AZ is not an enemy as well. I know that Russia took a lot of diplomatic efforts to settle down this 4 days conflict. I don’t believe Russia is interested in destabilization especially at Caucasus. Russia wants economic union, that might though affect the interests of other countries since that would imply a coordination market protection to Asia and to Europe which may not always be beneficial for the sattelites. And Russia is interested to keep NAT0 from deploying at her borders. Why, may be symbolically, may be there is a real potential threat in the future.

        Other than that I don’t believe Russia is interested in sustaining a conflict or in ruling the sattelites or whatever you are saying which sounds more like conspirology. I don’t know a lot about this region of course. The problems at Caucasus are intrinsic to Caucasus, not created by Russia neither she can provide any good solution.

        Even though Russia is closer, US and EU, but most probably Turkey and the Islamic ME do have a high influence to Caucasus. They are able to influence the long term trends by supporting journalists or a specific orientation, by encouraging nationalist sentiment or directly help at the critical bifurcation points such as uprising and wars. I’m afraid to dive into conspirology though.

        What about the Minsk (another Minsk) group, Alyev refers to? I suspect even though there is a big deal of truth at Armenian side, Armenia is not always right from the prospective of those agreements.

        Reply
        • Arthur

          well i say together because, while russia wants to have full control over the region therefore he needs a war, and turkey uses az to repair his relationship with russia.

          the oil price is not low, it is at the right level, the usa would not drop it too low. the problem is the governments that use that oil, it has become a way of becoming superwealthy, and now they do not want to cut their own costs they cut from the people, and thats why we have az aggression.

          russia sells offensive weapons to az which are more expensive and defensive weapons to AM which are less expensive, thus somehow keeping the balance. that is why easily could shoot their helicopters, tanks and drones and even older canons. and also russia knows the ability to fight of noth AM and az, he knows that we are not going to yield easily and that knowledge lets him sell more weapons to az than AM. there are videos from 90s where az drive their tank away from a group of Armenian soldiers, and 1 confirmed time when an AM soldier took over a tank with a hunting gun. I mean the difference between the level of courage is enourmous.

          az is not an enemy but it is a puppet of turkey, it means that if this time turkey wants to shoot an russian jet, he will tel aliev and he will do it. on the other hand a natinal minority of az Lengins want to create an independent state and the caucasian muslims of russia want to help them, in that case az will start bombing russia with their own weapon to prevent that from happening. az is an unstable state and we is capable of going even against turkey if the latter refuses to buy oil from him.

          russia does not need a full scale war, nor does az (if he is not completely sure that he will win it, either as an agreement with turkey and russia or by buying enourmous amount of weapons) but again if there is no war there is no need of a white dove that russia wants to be in the region.

          as for nato, I think georgia is more prone to nato than any other state in the region, and if saakashvili is elected again, it could be a perfect opportunity for nato to enter georgia.

          I think islamic world does not really help aliev or turkey, because they are not really islamic countries. they use islam for their needs, plus they also see the approach they have towards their religion, they both are oriented towards the “sinful” west. something like this happened during the 90s war too. many islamists fought for az and they left, seeing that this is not a jihad, it is just aliev’s ambition.

          the minsk group is a good way of solving the problem. but it has its limitation. they can not force az to stop aggression if he wants to shut up his nation he will start shooting. but I personally think that AM should not start negotiations on this subject in the first place, we won the war that az started freed our land, and we should have created the Artsakh republic or annexed it to AM and just forget about it. however, only the willingness of negotiating the issue is an enormous step from AM, and understanding this we should know that for that reason all the points and agreements must be in our favor. also like I said aliev does not want NKR, he does not care about it, all he cares is about his money and how not to be the dictator at who’s reign az became no more. for that he is capable of going against his own nation, russia and even turkey.

          Reply
          • stranger

            It is interesting to know something about AZ and Armenia from your posts. But I’m still confused by your attitude toward Russia. I believe you are switching the cause and effect. That problem was not created by Russia and Russia is not interested in destabilization. We perfectly remember Chechen wars when hundreds of people were killed in Moscow and over the country. Islamic part of Caucasus is extremely flammable. When you are saying AZ was encouraged by Turkey only to give Russia an opportunity to play for the peaceful process, the dove of peace, to recover the relationships with turkey, that is simply not true. And I believe Armenia as the winner in the war with AZ did not care much about the loser and currently is not implementing some of the negotiated agreements from Minks. And that may be the first reason why Alyev started this offense rather than any conspirology on Russian interests in a frozen conflict. But I don’t know, is it so or not? I don’t take anybody’s side.

          • Arthur

            well lets break russia in 2 stages the ussr and russian federation.

            the ussr created az for whatever reason he wanted (we know the reason, but lets not get into that not to be repeated) and made a wrong decision by cutting, annexing, changing or adding territories thus creating problems that we deal with right now.

            the rf does not want to solve the problem that his ancestor created and he does not give us the opportunity to do so for themselves and of course for our peaceful future. I agree this region is really flammable and can possibly be the initiator of the 3rd world war (if it has not already started)

            well chechen war was different, because it was on the russian land, it was like a “civil war” (kind of) but here it is different and time is different. the goals are different. now russia want to keep the menacing situation called the controlled chaos in the region so that Am and especially az and maybe even turkey would feel the need for someone big to stop them in the right place, like it happened during the 90s war and we were stopped from going further.

            the reason of AM not doing the minsk agreements is the unrest at the border that is initiated by az. if they want to keep shooting and killing why do we need to do the agreements? and even then, we are much more better in doing what we should than az doing what they are told, the most important being the agression that took almost 100 of Armenian lifes.

            the aggression from az is much older. before i heard some stories of the soldiers of both sides having “picnics” together. but then about some 6-7 years ago they started by firing usual machine guns, then they went for bigger ones, then small bombs, then a group of armed special units entered our trenches and started to kill our soldiers, then they started shooting the schools and houses (we had to build concrete walls in some places) and then the 4 day war happened, so it is not about the minsk group at all.

            this conflict has one aggressor, who is aliev, we all know about that. he, too, needs this conflict to be at this stage, so that he could endlessly use this factor. if you look carefully everything bad that happens in az is because AM “occupied” 20% of az. it is ridiculous. even when they used the oil waste materials as facades of their apartment buildings and it caught fire that was our fault too. that is how important is the NKR issue for aliev, that is why he will keep this problem alive as long as possible, that is why he needs to stay alive at the border, not to let the world forget about it by killing one or two and sometimes organizing 4 day wars to express his readiness for solving this issue by a war and publicly state about it like it did the ambassador of az in moscow. so it is not about the minsk group.

            if you look at the level of life of oil exporting countries then you will see that an average az citizen barely makes the ends meet, they do not live well (and now even worse, much worse), plus all the problems with minorities wanting independence. to give an answer to these question aliev has a simple answer connected with Artsakh issue. also building a tough propaganda wall he makes his own people believe that the cause of a fire from oil waste materials can be the Artsakh issue.

            like I said before aliev does not need NKR, if it was up to him he would let go all the parts of az including people living on them that does not have oil in it. but for us, Talishes, Lezgins and other natives those lands are homelands where they were born and have had a long and true history connected with that land.

  8. Pronobis

    I like Bellingcat, but it would be better if this article was written by a neutral person, not by 3 Armenians.

    Reply
    • stranger

      The same is for Russia. They rely too much on Ukrainian sources, the authors from the Baltic countries and other originally critical to Russia authors. The same for Syria. They take evidences from the right-side ‘moderate’ rebels too uncritically. They enlighten only events which fit into the current political mainstream and omit the events which are contradicting. For whatever own reason and motivation.

      Reply
  9. ismail

    This article is complete bullshit, full of inaccurate facts. The most prominent lie is probably about the Azeri casualties. During the 4-day war, Azerbaijan lost about 100 troops and civilians combined. The Azeri Defense Ministry confirmed only a fraction of the losses. Independent groups counted around 100 dead based on local media reports of funerals, etc. The lesson to draw is that you shouldn’t take Bellingcat seriously.

    Reply

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