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Russia’s War in Ukraine: The Medals and Treacherous Numbers

August 31, 2016

By Bellingcat Investigation Team

Translations: Русский

The full report can be downloaded here stock_save_pdf

The war in eastern Ukraine is known under multiple names; most often formulations similar to Ukrainian civil war or Ukrainian conflict are still used to describe the war. The implied characteristic as solely internal Ukrainian conflict is heavily disputed and an active Russian participation is widely accepted. While there is now plentiful evidence documenting a direct and decisive participation of Russian servicemen and the Russian armed forces in the fighting in eastern Ukraine since summer 2014, it is however not possible to support the various claims about the size of the Russian involvement using public available information.

Given the nature of open source evidence, it is near impossible to provide an exact number of Russian servicemen participating in the fighting in eastern Ukraine only relying on this type of information. The open source research done by @Askai707 and InformNapalm strongly suggest that – at minimum – hundreds of Russian servicemen were involved in the fighting so far. The most direct evidence could be provided by the Russian bureaucracy. However, such an information is also most likely a Russian state secret and not publicly available. Other information, similar to official statistics, would also allow an estimation of the number of involved Russian servicemen. Such information is available in previously published individual cases of Russian servicemen.

Previous published analyses identified Russian servicemen who published imagery of awarded medals. This imagery is valuable because most of the higher Russian medals have a consecutive numbering, explicitly stating the number of medals awarded so far. Therefore, imagery from two medals awarded at different dates allows us to calculate the number of awarded medals between both dates. Awards of four medals are analyzed in this report. It is possible to demonstrate that the number of awarded medals, compared to the years before 2014, suddenly and strongly increased in 2014 and 2015. The large number of awarded medals “For Distinction in Combat”, 4300 awards between 07.11.2014 and 18.02.2016, strongly suggests larger combat operations with active Russian military involvement in this period. In sum, the data suggests that more than ten thousand medals of all four considered types were awarded in the considered period. Therefore, it can be directly concluded that:

  • Thousands of Russian servicemen participated in 2014 and 2015 in combat operations and were awarded with medals for their actions in these operations.

Because of the evidence presented in preceding reports documenting the presence of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation in eastern Ukraine and its participating in the fighting, and because it is a rather unrealistic assumption that every Russian serviceman participating or involved in the fighting in eastern Ukraine has been awarded with one of the discussed medals, it is possible to conclude:

  • Most likely far more than ten thousand Russian servicemen participated in combat operations in eastern Ukraine.
  • Most likely tens of thousands Russian servicemen participated in or contributed to the fighting in eastern Ukraine.

In sum, the findings of this report support the claims that thousands of Russian servicemen were active in eastern Ukraine. With these findings, it is also possible to strongly increase the lower data-based estimate of Russian servicemen involved in the fighting in eastern Ukraine using only open source information.

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474 Comments

  1. johnwise 1

    I really think that Belling Cat should use their platform to shame World Leaders and especially the West. Ask and keep asking the following questions 1) where/who is supplying the ammo and equipment. 2) who controls the movement of this ammo and equipment across the border between Russia and Ukraine. 3) if Russia has no involvement in this war, then why are they laying down conditions on how to end it. 4) why are we not sending in an International Peacekeeping force either through UN or via the outfit that are responsible for Security in Europe. 5) why do Russia/ Separatists not want this to happen.
    I believe that we should supply Ukraine with enough sophisticated weaponry to be able to deter and or inflict costly damage to any further incursions into Ukraine.

    Reply
    • Евгений

      This medals for battles in the Syria, not for Ukraine.
      Bellingcat you’re clowns really.

      Reply
      • Daenerys Targaryen

        Russian involvement in Syria started in September 2015.

        This is what Russia does in Syria:

        Reply
      • Brent

        Medals for bombing hospitals and children in Syria?!?!?!

        You’re the a$$clown to believe Putin’s lies while he steals from you and your family. Don’t ask for another IMF bailout and instead you idiots who support him need to pull out your pitchforks and torches and hunt him down when Russia goes broke.

        I’d suggest you start looking for him at his billion dollar Black Sea mansion you paid for…..

        Reply
    • Arya Stark

      Nobody wants to give Ukraine advanced weapons because Ukraine is already a notorious illegal arms trafficker, I would surmise.

      Reply
    • stranger

      Perfect idea, more weapon is definitely what is needed for peace. Let’s create another Syria. May be just nukes to solve it radically?

      Reply
      • Joe

        Yes, only the invader should be allowed to send weapons, like the nazis in ww2 should have been left alone when they were in Russia.

        Reply
        • stranger

          Ukraine has more than enough of weapon and soldiers. The problem is not in the lack weapon, the problem is to stop the bloodshed and to stop shelling densely populated areas of Donetsk and Lugansk.
          Have you ever heard about Minsk agreements? If you are looking for the bloodshed instead, then yes, give them more weapon.

          Reply
          • Brent

            Have you heard about the Budapest Memorandum that Russia signed in 1994 GUARANTEEING UKRAINE’S SOVERIEGN TERRITORY?

            Why is Russia even a signatory to the Minsk Agreements when Putin claims there are no Russian troops or advanced Russian weapons in Donbass that Russia has never exported to any other nation? Why is Russia insisting Ukraine adopt a federal constitution granting powers to Russian controlled regions for the right to block Ukraine from signing any economic or association agreement with any other nation it chooses? Does Russia allow its own regions that kind of authority? NO NATION DOES.

            Putin stated clearly after his finally admitted Russian troops were involved in the takeover of Crimea, that Russia would use Ukrainian women and children as shields and his troops would be BEHIND THEM. That is what he is doing placing Russian weapons in schoolyards and next to apartment blocks in their INVASION OF UKRAINE.

            WAKE UP AND STOP BEING A USEFUL IDIOT.

          • Daenerys Targaryen

            “Ukraine has more than enough weapons” says the Russian troll. Why are you afraid Ukraine will receive more weapons if Russia is not invading Ukraine?

          • stranger

            Because Ukraine will use it to kill own civilians in Donbass and later Crimea, as it had used to do before it was stopped by Minsk. You, Ukrainian troll.

            As if you don’t know what is being discussed in Minsk format, what is the opinion of Europe and why Ukraine was not yet granted any weapon besides a bunch of rusty hammers and NAT0 instructors under Lvov. Don’t pretend you don’t understand what is going on.

        • Arya Stark

          if Ukraine is given modern weapons they will sell some of them on the black market to terrorists and use the rest to attempt to reconquer Donbas.

          Nobody is invading Ukraine. Nobody would want to.

          Reply
      • Brent

        Actually Ukraine gave up its nukes in 1994 for the guarantee of its sovereign territory under the Budapest Memorandum signed by Russia, the U.S. and the U.K. Yet all those parties seemed to have forgot about their guarantee.

        If you want another “Syria”, then do nothing about Russia now. They already invaded Moldova and got away with it. They invaded Georgia and got away with it. Now they invaded Ukraine, and are getting away with it.

        Who’s next? If it’s your country are you going to demand action then?

        Reply
        • Arya Stark

          Ukraine never at any stage had any nukes.

          Ownership of all nuclear weapons on Ukrainian soil passed to Russia, the universally recognised successor state to the Soviet Union.

          Reply
          • Brent

            Then why did Russia leave them there when the crawled back to Muscovy in 1991 after Ukraine declared independence?

            Using your flawed Russian logic, Russia should be cleaning up Chernobyl.

          • stranger

            Why do you think Russia didn’t participate in the cleaning the consequences of Chernobyl? I believe Ukrainian specialists and Russian ones were working together, risking their lives, because most of the liquidators got the lethal dose and died soon after that.

        • stranger

          US insisted that all nukes would be moved to Russia as the successor of USSR. Can you imagine what would be now otherwise??

          Reply
        • Arya Stark

          why were the nukes initially left in ukraine?

          because they were silo based ICBM’s that were extremely difficult to safely dismantle and remove.

          Reply
  2. niels bosman

    Why does Bellingcat report so one-sighted? There is obvious Russian support. There has been and still is obvious NATO support and financial economical support from the western participants like Hunter Biden. Both are even corrupted, fraudulous and interested in geopolitical and economic resources (gas). So please report the negative effects of this proxy-war from both parties.

    Reply
    • Aric Toler

      Niels,
      One is a geopolitical concern, the other has compelling, undiscovered open source evidence. If we were Foreign Policy or The Economist, we would certainly be in our element to write about the Western implementation of harmful neo-liberal policies in Ukraine. But economists we ain’t. If you have a compelling open source data set to make regarding these topics, we’d love to take it up and give you a platform to publish (e.g. open travel records? shareholder stakes in publicly declared companies? just spit-balling here).

      Reply
      • niels bosman

        Economics and geopolitical concerns are interrelated and cannot be seen as two independant topics. All banking and oil wars are geopolitical proxy-wars. Just like the Ukraine case is. I only read about the bad Russian influence (all the time) from Bellingcat. Are there also Bellingcat topics about the negative influence of NATO, neoliberal fossil hunters or negative western neoliberal influence in Ukraine. Maybe i haven’t checked these articles and can I still read them somewhere?

        Reply
        • Arya Stark

          You only read articles about bad Russia from bellingcat because that is what they are paid to produce.

          Reply
          • johnwise 1

            Nobody believes that Russia is bad, but the Government there certainly is.

          • stranger

            Whether they are paid for that or not, they receive other dividends trying to abide to the mainstream direction, when blaming Russia is a popular mainstream trend now. I don’t exclude they might have some personal convictions and principals perhaps. Some of the reports are outstanding, especially related to MH17, not without questionable spots and unjustified assumptions, the others are weak depending on the author and are just republishing of Ukrainian government sponsored sources or similar Syrian ones. De facto – biased, and a kind of perfectly built in the machine of ‘the offensive informational operations’ as would be called by NAT0 stratcom, regardless of the underlying reason. The cool stuff, but single sided.

      • stranger

        I really don’t feel comfortable to criticize, because technically you are doing a great job and giving a lot of facts and personally I would not be able to do any similar.
        But I cannot help to note that it depends on what and how you present.
        For example hypothetically you may tell about the Yanukovich corruption and regular people protesting at Maydan or you can investigate snipers who killed police and demonstrants at the same time and provoked the bloodshed. You can investigate Russian fire across the border or you can research Ukrainian battalions shelling civilians. Etc etc
        Depending on what topics you select and what sources you refer, you take one or the other side of the conflict and in fact working for one or the other side.

        Reply
          • stranger

            No, it is not. It is you trying to distract attention from the comment above. I meant that the great guys who create bellingcat could have been more objective or alternatively explicitly disclaimed their informational mission. The only my position is: don’t lose your mind and get rid of blinders.

          • Daenerys Targaryen

            You mean, just like RT? “More questions?” OK. What are 10,000 russian soldiers doing in Ukraine and how is Ukraine supposed to defend itself without ‘shelling”? Russia will loose and fall apart, and all of its crimes against humanity will someday be repaid in full.

          • stranger

            No, I meant only what I said. See also Minsk agreements. Pls don’t forget the article describes the events of 2014-15 and the last 2 years the sides were struggling around the implementation of Minsk. That is what the normand format is going to discuss, not granting more weapon nor pushing Ukraine to return Crimea by force.

        • Brent

          Do you also want to dispute the FACT that Russia invaded Ukraine?

          I’ts not about “taking sides” as you seem to think “Neville”. Bellingcat presents their research into open source information that is readily available to anyone willing to go find it. Are you upset that these FACTS show Russia to be a lying snivelling mafia run state and not the Putintopia you want it to be? Then take it up with Putin….

          Reply
          • Daenerys Targaryen

            Brent, I freakin love your sense of humor. “Putinotopia”, haha…

          • Arya Stark

            I am yet to see any proof Russia has invaded Ukraine. I dont accept bloggers such as this site and others as evidence, or Vice News.

          • fireguy

            Arya Stark, convincing you would be impossible task since you paid troll. Convincing other readers who does not argue open source facts would work very well.

          • stranger

            “I’ts not about “taking sides” as you seem to think “Neville”. ”
            Bellingcat did take the side and the side is to blame only Russia. That turns BC into just a tool of the informational war, banal propaganda, just a little bit more sophisticated and a bit disguised.

            “Bellingcat presents their research into open source information that is readily available to anyone willing to go find it. ”
            That is not true. The report in question lacks the links to the original sources. Other reports are just based on the interview of the interested people from Sirya. The same people who are used to generate the necessary picture for the western media. How anyone can validate that?

            That is not an open source already – firstly no sources are provided, secondly the pre selection of topics is intended to create the necessary phycological effect.

      • Brent

        “Harmful neo-liberal policies? Such as Ukrainians having the freedom to choose their own destiny and future? HOW DARE THEY EXPECT THAT!!!!

        Not when they should accept continuing to be under the boot heel of neo-fascist Russia who openly sponsors conventions for the most hateful deceitful Nazzi’s and Fascists in St Petersburg!!!

        C’mon, you know you want to say it since you believe, “Aric”…..

        Reply
          • Brent

            in 2010 on a his campaign promises of
            1) bringing Ukraine closer to Europe, which his government negotiated for 3 years until he suddenly refused to sign in November of 2013 after Putin paid him a $15 billion bribe
            2) getting rid of corruption in Ukraine…..yet instead his “dentist” son amassed a fortune of over $500 million in 3 short years Papa Yanukovych was President.

            No one denies Yanukovych WAS elected President of Ukraine, but he massively failed to fulfill his campaign promises and then fled to Russia to hide behind Putin’s skirt after he ordered the armed Berkut to attack sleeping student protesters at Maidan on November 30th of 2013, and then in January when he passed the “dictatorship laws”.

            Seriously. Look it up instead of regurgitating the propaganda the Kremlin wants you to make a fool of yourself spreading….

          • stranger

            Why couldn’t you have waited 1.5 years and calmly reelected Yanukovich in a democratic way where the south east would also be presented and their opinion countered? There would be no Crimea annexation, no rebellion in Donbass, you would have traded a better deal from Europe or joined Russian economical space.

          • stranger

            Yanukovich fled only after a bloodshed started at Maydan, the fire from demonstrants, unidentified snipers at the roof of Ukraine hotel occupied by the demonstrants and the weapon from police side as well. I don’t believe Yanukovich ordered to fire at the people, most probably the weapon stolen at arsenals at the western Ukraine appeared at Maydan and police was also armed in response.

          • stranger

            “and then fled to Russia to hide behind Putin’s skirt after he ordered the armed Berkut to attack sleeping student protesters at Maidan on November 30th of 2013”
            What I can never ever understand in you Ukrainians is that subtle craftiness as well as fingerpointing! Russians anyway are a bit more straightforward.
            Yanukovich fled already after the agreements with the opposition were reached and he agreed for the reelection and the other conditions and ONLY AFTER that the fire started at Maydan and still unidentified snipers started to kill both police and people at the same time. Today after 3 years Ukraine has never completed the investigation who those snipers were. Many people including European officials believe they were from the opposition. If it was not for the firearms from the demonstrants anc the following bloodshed and the immediate reaction and the pressure to Yanukovich and his government from the western countries first of all US, there would be no coup and none of the following events we are discussing now.

        • Arya Stark

          Yanukovich was right to take Putin’s offer. It was way better than the EU’s.

          Now look at the state of Ukraine. Free trade with the EU has not helped at all because the EU doesn’t want Ukrainian products.

          Russia did want them, but now they won’t buy them either.

          Reply
        • stranger

          Brent: “Ukrainians having the freedom to choose their own destiny and future?”
          Yes, they have. But then why do you deny the same right for the people of Crimea who decided at the referendum to leave Ukraine and join Russia and the people of Donbass who don’t support the current anti Russian course of the central government and want to decide how they are going to live themselves? All of that after their president, all south east voted for, was overthrown where the western Ukraine nationalists took the most active part and nobody asked for the opinion of Donbass and Crimea?

          As for neo-liberalism, in Ukraine it takes the form of oligarchy merged with the corrupted government looking for the opportunity to sell the country out to the global corporations which are going to drain it finally.

          Reply
    • MartinFierro

      There is no “proxy war” nor equality between Putun’s support and NATO support, even suppousing that both are equal in the volume. Because Ukraine is a sovereign state and can use any help they required and from whom they wanted.

      Reply
      • Daenerys Targaryen

        Absolutely on point, Martin. Russian trolls fail to recognize most important fact. Ukraine is a sovereign state free to accept aid from whomever it wishes.
        This doesn’t even get into the fact that military support from the west (if excluding Ukrainian diaspora) has been negligent to non-existing.

        Reply
        • stranger

          Of course Ukraine would be happy to accept any aid from anywhere, Klimkin even insisted that it is good that Europe supports Ukraine morally, but it is time to help with something more material. The only problem is to find somebody who is ready to give the aid.

          Reply
    • jerry

      There is a difference – to support invaders, or to support victim of aggressive invasion.

      Reply
          • fireguy

            Can you remind me on dates Ukraine attacked Hungary or Poland? Ukraine got independence 25 years ago 🙂

          • fireguy

            Here is list of Russian invasions, Arya Ivanova, just to name recent: Poland , Czechoslovakia, Finland, Georgia, Moldova, Chechnya, Afghanistan, Baltic States, Bulgaria, Romania. Forget hundreds conquests before USSR. Peaceful indeed, troll

    • Brent

      Hunter Biden?!?!? Seriously?

      He’s on the Board of Directors of a privately owned Ukraine gas company. He’s not fighting Russia. Check out his resume and then tell me he’s less qualified for that position than you or I, or Putin’s daughter who runs a billion plus dollar program for Moscow University and suddenly her recent husband is one of the richest men in Russia.

      Stop following R.T. and Russian propaganda and you won’t embarrass yourself by bringing Hunter Biden into some stupid irrelevant argument you read about on some propaganda news site.

      Reply
  3. Jeff in Canada

    This is the best analysis of the Russian involvement in Ukraine that I have seen. Western governments need to read this.

    Reply
  4. stranger

    The report refers to about 20 cases of found medals with numbers and dates in order to extrapolates the total number based on that. I failed to find any link to the original sources thought, it only refers in general the blogger and infonapalm resource. Are there any verifiable links to the original pictures?

    Reply
    • Arya Stark

      No original sources linked in the ‘report’.

      None of this research can therefore be checked.

      Also many of the medals can be awarded for performing well in military exercises or to non soldiers like firefighters.

      Steaming crock of crap all round.

      Reply
      • Brent

        Yes “Fake Arya Stark”…..they forgot to mention Putin routinely awards medals for “Best Dressed Fascist” and the “Most Hospitals Bombed in Syria”….

        I’d suggest you inspect your own steaming crock of crap and extricate your cranium from your wrecktum…..

        Reply
    • rockybeethoven

      It is really quite simple:
      The medals are numbered sequentially. Si if you know that an date X medal number A was awarded and that on date Y medal number B was awarded, then you only need the logical thinking of a first grader in order to deduct that within the period from X to Y a total number of B-A medals was awarded.
      In order to calculate B-A you need the math skill of a first grader.

      If you apply the same method to different periods of time, you will determine that until 2014 the number of medals awarded per day was between 0.3 and 0.6.
      From 2014 onwards it’s 9.3 per day, a rise of 1500-3000%

      And medals for “distinction in combat” are not awarded to firemen or for taking part in exercises. They are awarded exactly the way the name suggests, to distinguished participants of combat operations. Up to 2008 for anti terror operations in Dagestan and Chechnya, from 2008 onwards also for the war against Georgia and since 2014 for participation in combat in Ukraine and probably in Syria.

      Reply
      • stranger

        No, no, I’m not so stupid not to understand the logic they applied. I just would expect to see confirmation that the numbers provided in the tables, particularly the date and the serial number of the medals are not falsified and that all medals are related to the circumstances they are ascribed to.

        In order to do that we need the links to the original sources. I have no idea what might have prevented giving the references to the underlying sources in the report. That is the very first thing to expect from any scientific paper. The resources they refer in general are known for their subjectivity.

        I don’t deny that, just would like to see myself. Just that’s it.

        Reply
        • John Zenwirt

          It’s possible a good many of B/C’s original contributors like to stay anonymous for reasons of personal safety, that of family, etc..

          Reply
          • stranger

            John,

            I’ve found something, not compared all the data. Many of those medals if not all were actually taken from the research of the Ukrainian blogger and the informational fighter @Askai707 on the 200th Russian brigade from June 2016. They added the theory that medal numbers are sequential and can be extrapolated.

      • Arya Stark

        Most of the medals mentioned in the report can be awarded without being in combat or to non soldiers.

        Also the point remains, the report provided no sources. We have no way to know if any of the claims are true.

        Another problem is that the report states there are some medals awarded that have the wrong numbers for the dates awarded, according to their theory. They dont know how to account for this so they just dont include them in the analysis.

        Reply
        • Andrea

          most?
          Then just focus on the ~4300 medals awarded only to soldiers, only in combat operations between Nov.2014 and Feb.2016…
          How many “combat operations” were made?
          Syria?
          Ok… then just cut the number to 3600…
          Same question: which combat operations involving more than 3500 soldiers took place?
          And if only 3500 were awarded… how many took part to the same operations but were not awarded?

          One source image is given, it has glared names… therefore you can guess that authors are trying to “protect” the uploader identities…
          Personally don’t know why and MoD can surely go back to the soldier by looking at the number of the medal…
          Anyway like many others you would probably start complaining about how those images are fakes, about the fact that VK.com does not guarantee anything…

          PS: unless MoD gives official statements about those numbers/dates, something that is less probable than aliens coming to visit us… this report fits the same theories given by:
          – cross border artillery attacks
          – reports of vehicles crossing the border
          – russian soldiers captured in ukraine
          – funerals of russian soldiers mysteriously dying while there are no fightings elsewhere than ukraine…
          – unlimited supply of weapons/ammo/fuel to the “rebels”

          Are all those unfortunate coincidences?

          Reply
          • Brent

            Well stated. Unfortunately “logic” typically is not something Russian trolls and useful idiots can comprehend!!!

          • stranger

            Why do you think the medals are granted in sequential order w/o gaps in the number sequence? That is just an assumption to be justified.

        • Brent

          Sure “Fake Arya Stark”….let’s name the sources so the FSB can hunt them down like Nemtsov, Litvinenko, Magnitsky, Politkovskay and anyone else who crossed the “Kremlin Mafia Don” so that he can silence them.

          You probably still believe the “Ghost of Bandera flew that ground attack SU-25 and shot down MH17 too and that “Carlos the Spanish Speaking ATC from Boryspil” is going to provide proof of it……funny thing is we’re still waiting for the Kremlin to back up their ridiculous fiction and 298 innocent people died at the hands of Russia.

          Reply
          • Arya Stark

            No sources, no dice. A report without checkable sources is worthless, and certainly isnt open source.

          • stranger

            All sources are openly mentioned in @askai707 report, they just didn’t want to refer the source directly for any reason, need to check case by case though.

      • stranger

        After all it is never late to fix the report and add all related sources if the authors would be so kind. Because this forum is actually needed to receive some useful feedback. So the major relevant feedback here so far is to kindly ask to provide please all referred sources of the evidences.

        Reply
  5. Konstantin

    This doesn’t change a lot, but to my mind it is worth mentioning in the report that one person could have been awarded more than one medal of the same/different types and this is when it comes to importance who medals were awarded to.

    Reply
  6. Daenerys Targaryen

    I agree with Konstantin. Lets say one person received two types of medals. That cuts down the number of medals awarded to 5,000. However, it is very unlikely that every person fighting in Ukraine received a medal. Also, are the medals awarded posthumously? If not, than the number of Russian soldiers who died in Ukraine should also be included in the estimate. Overall, estimated number of Russian servicemen fighting in Ukraine highly exceeding 10,000 seems accurate.

    In regards to publishing the evidence, it is clear that Russia will persecute & punish any servicemen who posts such evidence online, therefore no direct link should be provided. I am sure with a little research, any one of us could find photos of Russian soldiers touting these medals on odnoklassniki.ru.

    Reply
  7. Petya

    If this is all true then I would like to know how many of them got killed or wounded. I am not sure if you can obtain that info from open sources but it would certainly be very interesting. I don’t think you can keep that kind of info secret, not even in a country run by siloviki. For now I didn’t hear anything – over to you bellingcat.

    Reply
    • Brent

      Putin banned the “publication of peace time military casualties”…..how hilarious is that if Russia is not invading Ukraine like Putin claims?

      The sad thing is there are still many “useful idiots” out there who buy the Kremlin Mafia’s propaganda. Cut off all business with them so they can no longer fund their military machine that is killing innocent people in other countres.

      Reply

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